Like most people, I was expecting the renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia to not last very long. Aside from the pre-February general consensus that Russia would roll over Ukraine fast (something now recognized as a broad misjudgment of the relative strengths of the military forces), there was the sheer mindlessness of the attack in the first place. Putin went with the riskiest approach, a full invasion, the choice with the highest possibility of uniting the West. Surely someone like Putin, with his carefully constructed aura of master strategist, a leader who purportedly plays fourth dimensional political chess, would not stick his head into a vise from which there was no easy escape.
War is the most unpredictable of human activities. There is still a chance tomorrow, large or small, of an event or chain of events that could alter the course of the conflict. Increasingly, however, it appears this war will be following the well-trodden historical path of escalating conflict into an unknowable future.
The Thirty Years War (1618-1648) is the best-known example of such a conflict, where initial struggles between local forces drew in more and more outside powers. But we have more recent examples. In 1980, Saddam Hussein sent the Iraqi army into Iran for a quick land grab over what was supposed to be a teetering and incapable new Iranian revolutionary regime. Instead, it went on for eight bloody years. The Bosnia War (1992-1995) only ended due to NATO intervention. The Libyan and Syrian Wars (2011-present) grind on. Ethiopia and Afghanistan have been in and out of war for forty years. And so forth.
Why will the Russia-Ukraine War continue for some time? Here are factors which you also find seeded throughout the above examples.
1. The weaker combatant, Ukraine, is substantial enough in size and population, and determined enough that, with assistance from a Western coalition whose economic and military power dwarfs Russia, they now appear able to not only stave off collapse, but even slowly nibble away and reconquer territory.
2. The stronger combatant, Russia, due to significant miscalculations, foreign sanctions and domestic factors, is not going to be able to fully mobilize its strength.
3. Casualties and now strong evidence of war crimes is going to harden Ukrainian resistance even further.
4. Putin and his ruling circle now realize that their initial failure has put their own power, if not actual physical safety, in question. However, unless there is a bolt from the blue (Putin drops dead of heart attack or a Russian von Stauffenberg appears) history shows that repressive regimes have tremendous staying power. With so many Russian casualties and growing economic damage, Putin cannot easily negotiate his way out of this without something tangible...and that is the last thing Ukraine wants, since Putin showed in Chechnya that defeat the first time around can simply be a prelude for coming back again a second time. Russia also currently appears to be finding some work arounds on sanctions, with China, India and others.
Russia of course has been defeated in war before. The Imperial German Army and its allies forced the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk on Tsarist Russia in 1918 [EDIT: as several comments have noted, the Tsar had already fallen by the time the treaty was agreed, so to be correct substitute “Tsarist Russia” with “Soviet Russia.”] But there is no prospect of the Ukrainians forcing such a surrender on their own. NATO? NATO is a defensive alliance, and even if there was a prospect of this turning into a NATO-Russia clash (unlikely due to nuclear risks), NATO is not going to charge towards Moscow.
As we watch reports of mass Ukrainian civilian casualties in the reconquered areas, many are realizing that Europe and the world are not going to be secure so long as Putin and his regime exercise power. And the Putin regime, based on historical evidence of the impact of economic sanctions on repressive regimes, as well as Putin’s apparently successful apparatus of domestic control, is not going anywhere soon.
This is all incredibly sad. To see, in 2022, the lives and livelihoods of so many innocent people snuffed out by the vainglories of ruthless powerbrokers.
Another unpleasant prospect appears. If this drags on, as seems likely, no doubt Putin will increasingly grasp again at a lifeline — the return of Trump and MAGA to power in 2024. The GOP establishment, despite its mouthing of pro-Ukraine sentiments, knows that its base voters hate the Democrats more than they hate Putin. GOP support of Ukraine is a hollow expedience. If Trump runs, they will line up behind him again. The chaos that would come in the wake of a Trump re-election, with possible US withdrawal from NATO, withdrawal of assistance from Ukraine, and ending of sanctions (hey Vladimir, I need a favor) is a real possibility.
I am glad to read so many diaries on DKOS that grasp the importance of supporting Ukraine. It looks now that this conflict will go on for a long time. We will need endurance, not only to continue to support the Ukrainian people and their quest for democracy and a chance to live in peace, but to ensure that the USA itself does not once again fall into the hands of Putin’s allies.